The curve has become flatter. It needs to be like this so it doesn’t overtax our health system. We have made model observations. We’re now at about reproduction factor 1 … that is an average of one person infecting another one. If we get to the point where everybody infects 1.1 people, then by October, we will reach the capacity level of our health system with the assumed numbers of intensive care beds. If we get to 1.2 people, so everyone is infecting 20 percent more. Out of 5 people, one infects two and the rest one, then we will reach the limit of our health care system in July. And if it’s up to 1.3 people, then in June we will reach the limits of our health system. So, that’s where you can see how small the margin is, and the whole evolution is based on the fact that we assume that we have an infection figure that we can monitor; that we can track. But it is this ice … or a fragile situation or really a situation where caution is the order of the day, and not overconfidence.

Angela Merkel

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