The N word

The three malevolent bastards causing the most death and destruction beyond the borders of their own nations at present are Putin, Trump and Netanyahu, and all of them are in dire straits. Putin is losing the war in Ukraine while Russians are suffering badly; Trump is losing the war in Iran and is desperately looking for an off-ramp; and Netanyahu is also losing the war in Iran and is struggling in Lebanon.

While Russia continues to daily launch missiles and drones in their hundreds into Ukraine against civilian targets¹, Ukraine is being smarter in attacking facilities which support the Russian war economy or the armed services². These facilities include oil export terminals, oil refineries, electronics factories, weapons factories, chemical factories, air defence systems, etc.^3-8, severely hampering Russia’s war effort. On top of this, the number of casualties suffered by the Russian armed forces has dramatically increased in recent months, such that the losses cannot be replaced without some sort of general mobilisation from the populace.

Ukrainian data indicates that Russian forces recruited roughly 80,456 in the first three months of 2026, and suffered 85,290 casualties in the same time frame. It is also suspected that Russian losses may be even higher than the Ukrainian data indicates. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that Russian forces lost more than 35,000 soldiers in March alone, whereas the Ukrainian General Staff reported a total of 30,800 Russian losses in March. Ukraine’s “I Want to Live” initiative reported on April 6 that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) recruited fewer soldiers in the first three months of 2026 than it would need to be on track to meet its 2026 recruiting target of 409,000 contract soldiers. The initiative reported that the Russian MoD would need to recruit 1,100-1,150 soldiers a day to meet its annual recruiting target of 409,000 but was only able to recruit an average of 940 contract soldiers a day in the first three months of this year⁹.

The Russian economy is suffering badly to the extent that the sovereign wealth fund is being rapidly denuded, and the budget, which has saved the economy from collapse since Russia’s attack on Ukraine began in 2022, and which fuelled growth in the following years, is in real trouble. Officially, the finance ministry plans to curb this year’s surge in state spending by approximately 4%. The state budget adopted in the northern autumn also seems grounded in over-optimistic assumptions, including government revenue. In January, oil-and-gas income fell by ~50% year-on-year, dropping to lows not seen since the height of coronavirus lockdowns in July, 2020. In absolute terms, Russia brought in just 393bn rubles ($5.1bn) in energy taxes during the month, compared with 789bn rubles in January 2025 and 675bn rubles in January 2024. Estimates suggest that the 2026 budget deficit might be triple the official target. This would be caused by a simultaneous slump in oil-and-gas revenues combined with rising expenses^10-12.

The Kremlin has begun a widespread crackdown on the spread of information online in an attempt to control the narrative in Russia. It has started rolling blackouts of internet services, has banned foreign messaging apps, and has given more powers to the Federal Security Service (FSB), Russia’s secretive counterintelligence agency. Putin said the need for such measures was to strengthen the “information and digital space”. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov added “this is all related to the need to ensure security”. The Institute for the Study of War has said Putin’s internet crackdown was rooted in weakness. It was an effort to control online narratives, prevent anti-war sentiment and prepare the country for a protracted war with Ukraine, the report from the American-based research institute said. However, Sascha-Dominik Bachmann, a law and security professor at the University of Canberra, argued it went further, saying “this is about maximising control, a digital repression even … The Putin regime is less optimistic than it appears, maybe because things are not working [out] how they wanted”. He suggested that Putin may be planning for a Trumpian-style announcement saying the operation in Ukraine has been successful and dictating the narrative to make it look like a win for Russia”¹³. Like Trump in Iran, he may be looking for an off-ramp.

Netanyahu convinced Trump that bombing the bejesus out of Iran was a sensible thing to do. Given Trump’s susceptibility to flattery, I suspect that all Netanyahu would have had to do was to tell Trump that it would make Trump look like a ‘great leader’. This is a simple system for controlling Trump as he sees things only through his malignant narcissist goggles by which self-enrichment and self-aggrandisement are his only concern. Netanyahu also stated that Iran was only a short time away from gaining a nuclear weapon, telling Trump that “You can’t have a nuclear Iran on your watch”, and indicating Iran was planning an assassination attempt on Trump¹⁴.

The Trump regime had no consistent strategic objectives in the attack on Iran, apart from what had been sold to Trump by Netanyahu. Depending on who in the regime was asked and when, the aims were regime change, preventing Iran obtaining nuclear weapons, and destroying its military capabilities, among others¹⁵. Again, through his malignant narcissist goggles, Trump assumed that assassinating Khamenei would lead to the nation collapsing, as he assumes the US would do if its dear leader were assassinated. However, one Khamenei was replaced by another and the regime continues. In addition, their military capabilities, while decreased, have not been destroyed. That Iran is after nuclear weapons is one of Netanyahu’s old chestnuts that he has been trotting out on a regular basis for decades. It will be discussed elsewhere.

Trump, in an expletive laden rant on his own bullshit version of Xitter, screamed that if Iran didn’t open the Strait of Hormuz, all hell would break loose¹⁶. It did not seem to register in his rapidly deteriorating brain that the Strait of Hormuz was open prior to Netanyahu convincing him to bomb Iran.

So, what did Trump do next, he announced that the US was going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, presumably because Iran was letting some tankers through on their way to nations that have not sided with the US and Israel. Iran also reputedly charges tolls to pass through the strait¹⁷. Seemingly, Trump couldn’t bear the thought of someone else making cash off shipments of oil and his deluded mind stated, in another rant, that when this was all over, he and Iran would share the tolls¹⁸.

Despite this US blockade, traffic through the strait has continued, albeit at far below prewar levels, with at least 8 ships, including three with Iran ‘links’ transiting the strait during the first full day of the blockade¹⁹. Iran’s oil production amounts to about 3.6 million barrels per day, which is about 3.5% of global production of just over 100 million barrels per day. 90% of Iran’s oil exports go to China. Since the blockade began, the Chinese tanker Rich Starry has transited the strait, with the US apparently deciding not to interfere with its voyage¹⁷.

China has called the American blockade of Iranian ports as “dangerous and irresponsible”. This public statement was its most significant to date as China, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, faces growing pressure to use its influence to bring an end to the war. Chinese president Xi has said the international rule of law “must be safeguarded … and must not be selectively applied or disregarded, nor should the world be allowed to regress to the law of the jungle. He said this during a meeting in Beijing with Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi. The crown prince is just one of several foreign dignitaries to visit Beijing in recent days. This has allowed China to showcase its contrast with American foreign policy²⁰.

Trump has indicated that the Iran war is “almost over”, which makes some commentators suspect that he will just walk away from the conflict. He seems unable to obtain significant concessions and currently seems unwilling to back down (although the epithet TACO applies to Trump for good reason), in the face of obvious failure. If some deal does happen, it is unlikely to favour the US, and could leave Iran in a stronger position than before the war²¹.

If Trump does either walk away, leaving Iran in a stronger position than before, Netanyahu will be furious, as he wanted to see the effective destruction of Iran, to leave Israel the major power in the region. I get the impression that the US forces in the region have been doing the minimum required to appease Trump and that the ‘boots on the ground’ option is receding as a possibility. This is perhaps because of Trump’s rapidly declining popularity in the US, and the suspected acceleration of that drop which would accompany the many bodies in boxes arriving back in the US.

The question that remains is what will Netanyahu do. He is desperate to keep the US bending to his will, but if Trump walks away, he will be left with the continuing genocide in Gaza, the invasion of southern Lebanon, and a surviving Iran. So, Israeli soldiers would continue dying in Lebanon, and Iranian drones and missiles would continue pummelling Israel. The fact that in Israel it is now illegal to show the damage caused by those drones and missiles, or to report on associated deaths perhaps gives an indication that Israel is not faring as well as Netanyahu would have you believe²². This is much like Putin’s technique in Russia.

Since the current Netanyahu government took over in late 2022, some 200,000 Israelis have left the country with, more recently, an increase in the proportion of highly skilled professionals, including doctors, heading to places like Europe and Australia; this from a country with a population of about 9.5 million. This is causing concerns about the future viability of the nation itself²³.

What worries me the most is that Russia, the US and Israel are all nuclear-armed powers rule by psychopaths who are desperate to protect themselves from the consequences of their actions. People like these have no concern for others, and if they perceive that their power is at all threatened, they will do anything, and I mean anything, including using nuclear weapons, that they think will lead to the continuation of their regime. This is a very dangerous situation, not just in the Iran and Ukraine, but in Europe, Russia, Israel and the US.

While Putin and Trump seem to be looking for ways to get out of the wars they started, Netanyahu is too deeply invested in his wars to simply pull back. I think out of the three, he would be most likely to use nuclear weapons if things start to go even worse for Israel, especially if Trump pulled the plug.

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The N word

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